679
AXNT20 KNHC 121810
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT APR 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N20W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N19W TO 01N30W TO NEAR 03S40W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN
08W-16W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
NEAR 24N92W. BOTH LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. GENTLE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF, EXCEPT
FOR VARIABLE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS WEST OF 94W. SEAS ARE MOSTLY
3 FT OR LESS AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES AND BY THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS.
WITH THE RECENT PASSAGE OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT, THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT HAS BECOME DRY AND STABLE,
WITH NO ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
TO GENTLE SPEEDS ON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
BASIN, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUN THROUGH MON BEFORE DIMINISHING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST PART OF HAITI,
SOME OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WATERS. TO THE SOUTH, CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN
75W-81W. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE
TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA IS ALLOWING FOR
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OFF NICARAGUA TO NEAR 81W AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN A RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PASS. SEAS WITH THESE
WINDS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. MOSTLY FRESH NORTH WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT,
EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND
68W, ALSO IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND FROM 18N TO 20N WEST OF 85W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF NICARAGUA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING
ON MON. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND IN THE LEE OF HISPANIOLA SUN NIGHT THROUGH
TUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE
STRENGTHENING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG A
POSITION FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 28N80W. TO ITS
SOUTHEAST, A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO WEST-
CENTRAL CUBA. FARTHER EAST, ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 64W AND THE
TROUGH. MODERATE SEAS AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED IN
THIS AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS A PARENT HIGH OF 1029 MB NORTH
OF THE AREA NEAR 36N42W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE
PRESENT BETWEEN 35W AND 65W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS WHILE FURTHER WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
NORTH OF 25N, REACHING STRONG SPEEDS EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF
29N BY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATER EAST OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ON EITHER SIDE OF IT.
AGUIRRE
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