064
AXNT20 KNHC 131025
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN APR 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N19W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N19W TO NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 27W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF AMERICA, SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS EAST OF 85W
AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED OFF TAMAULIPAS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS OVER
THE E GULF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH S RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE W GULF THROUGH MON BEFORE DIMINISHING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HISPANIOLA TO THE
SW CARIBBEAN. A COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING
HISPANIOLA, EASTERN CUBA, JAMAICA, PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY, WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE REST OF THE BASIN.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT ARE NOTED WEST
OF 80W AND SOUTH OF 16N. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE WEST OF 80W.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OFF NICARAGUA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MON. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE, AND IN THE LEE OF HISPANIOLA SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF THE
AREA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW PRES NEAR 37N68W TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS
ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
AN ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM BERMUDA TO
HISPANIOLA, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE REST OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF A 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 35N40W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH RESULT IN
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS NORTH OF 25N AND BETWEN 57W AND
67W. MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THESE WATERS. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE REST OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS
WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N, REACHING STRONG SPEEDS E OF THE
FRONT AND N OF 29N TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW WATERS TUE
NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT.
ERA
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