182
AXNT20 KNHC 132119
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON APR 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC AT THE COASTAL BORDER OF
LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD
TO 00N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 00N24W TO NEAR 01S46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02S
TO 04N BETWEEN 14W AND 27W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE SW GULF, JUST WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PREVAILS W OF 94W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER. GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE
OVER THE NW GULF, AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF GENERALLY PROVIDING FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT E TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MON ALLOWING FOR THE GENTLE TO
MODERATE RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEFORE DIMINISHING TUE.
WINDS THROUGHOUT BEGIN TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS THU
AND THU NIGHT, EXCEPT INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT PREVAIL WEST OF THE TROUGH AND S
OF 15N. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ASIDE FROM
SEA HEIGHTS DESCRIBED ABOVE, SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS OFF
NICARAGUA WILL DIMINISH ON MON. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND IN THE LEE OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO FRESH
TO STRONG STARTING MON AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO 21N67W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ARE EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF ABOUT 25N ALONG WITH MODERATE
SEAS. WEST OF THE FRONT, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-6
FT, PREVAIL. OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP TROPICS, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EAST OF THE FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL, EXCEPT REACHING FRESH SPEEDS OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN
THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
FROM 28N55W, THEN STATIONARY TO THE EASTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA
MON NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL SHIFT E OF 55W TUE WHILE
THE STATIONARY PORTION WEAKENS TO A TROUGH AND SHIFT BACK TO THE
W. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
AL
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