549
AXNT20 KNHC 141901
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON APR 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL
FACILITATE A ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM THE E TO NE LATER
THIS EVENING. GALES LOOK TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED IN AREAS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N21W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N21W TO NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 06N BETWEEN 10
AND 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED S OF 05N
BETWEEN 42W AND THE FAR NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL.
GULF OF AMERICA...
RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS WEST OF 93W, ALONG
WITH SLIGHT SEAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY,
ALLOWING FOR THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BEFORE DIMINISHING TUE. DURING THIS PERIOD WINDS WILL
PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS WED NIGHT MAINLY WEST OF 90W.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING E TO SE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FRI NIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN,
RESULTING IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND S OF 13N. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW COLOMBIA SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, LEE OF CUBA AND OFF
NICARAGUA. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE
NW COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 3-7 FT SEAS
PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE 7-9 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE LEE
OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND IN THE LEE OF HISPANIOLA
THROUGH TUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS N OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. WHILE NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR-GALE FORCE OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. PULSES OF STRONG WINDS WILL THEN
CONTINUE IN THIS AREA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR 31N56W AND EXTENDS
SW TO THE NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS AREAS N OF 23N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 50W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER
DATA CAPTURED FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO 48W AND NORTH OF 27N. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 7-9 FT. MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT TO
72W AND NORTH OF 30N. SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED 27N74W.
A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 34N36W DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, SUSTAINING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WEST OF 35W. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE MODERATE. MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE PRESENT EAST OF 35W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N56W TO
19N68W, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF IT.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N ALONG
WITH ROUGH SEAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING
THROUGH MIDWEEK, DISSIPATING BY WED NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY
ENTER THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF ABOUT 27N AND WEST OF 64W,
INCLUDING NEAR AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FRI ALONG WITH ROUGH
SEAS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
ADAMS
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