791
AXNT20 KNHC 142050
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE APR 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2050 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST NE OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTH OF COLOMBIA. THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TONIGHT, FURTHER TIGHTENING THE
GRADIENT OFF COLOMBIA. THIS TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
COINCIDE WITH A NOCTURNAL PULSING OF WINDS OFF COLOMBIA TO SUPPORT
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT WITH
THESE GALE FORCE WINDS BY TUE MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 09N13.5W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N20W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N20W TO 03N43W TO NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02S TO 05N
BETWEEN 15W AND 34W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 94W. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE
OVER THE NW GULF, AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT WINDS OVER THE E GULF. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BEFORE DIMINISHING TUE. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEGINNING TUE NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING WED
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NE GULF. BY WED
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING E TO SE FRESH WINDS THU NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF. WINDS WILL LIKELY PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON A GALE WARNING OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST NE OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, BETWEEN CUBA AND
JAMAICA, AND S OF HISPANIOLA. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE
6-8 FT RANGE. MODERATE WINDS PREVAUK OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, NE TO E WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BEFORE DECREASING TO FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS TUE MORNING. WITHIN THE AREA OF THESE WINDS, SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND IN THE LEE
OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE CENTERED NE OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND AES OF 6-10 FT ARE N OF 30,
BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE HIGH CENTER, WITH MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE SEAS W OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. EAST OF THE
FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WATERS OUSIDE THE DEEP TROPICS,
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N36W. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT, DOMINATE THESE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE
WEST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 29N ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH MIDWEEK,
DISSIPATING BY WED NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW
WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF ABOUT 27N AND WEST OF 65W,
INCLUDING NEAR AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FRI ALONG WITH ROUGH
SEAS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
AL
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