961
AXNT20 KNHC 150400
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE APR 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0325 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG
RIDGE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW SUPPORT STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NE WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA. THE MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT WITH THESE GALE FORCE WINDS BY TUE
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TUE MORNING,
BUT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 01N23W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N23W TO NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM SOUTH OF 04N AND BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN, SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND FLORIDA
STRAITS, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. A
GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS MAINTAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY WED, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH
SPEEDS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ONCE
AGAIN, SUPPORTING E TO SE FRESH WINDS THU NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF. WINDS WILL LIKELY PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS OFF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF BEGINNING ON FRI
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON A GALE WARNING
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO 18N. TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WIND CONVERGENCE
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE, A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND NEARBY LANDMASSES.
OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-7 FT.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
FOUND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE
MORNING OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WITHIN THE AREA OF THESE
WINDS, SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
E WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND
IN THE LEE OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
SHIFTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG
NE TO E WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER THE SE UNITED STATES SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS NORTH
OF 28N AND WEST OF 71W. MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THESE WATERS. A
STRONG NON-TROPICAL LOW SITUATED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS SENDING
SWELL TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 31N55W TO 28N62W TO 31N66W. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED
BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS, HISPANIOLA AND NE CUBA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE.
MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS STRETCHES FROM 31N51W TO 22N62W, WHERE IT BECOMES A
STATIONARY FRONT TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE HAS DIMINISHED, BUT WE CAN STILL SEE A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL
EAST OF THE FRONT TO 47W AND NORTH OF 23N. THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSIVE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AZORES. THIS RIDGE SUPPORTS
FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OFF SOUTHERN WESTERN
SAHARA AND MAURITANIA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT IN THE REST OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. FRESH WINDS ARE WEST OF THE
FRONT NORTH OF 28N ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH MIDWEEK, DISSIPATING BY WED
NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF 27N AND WEST OF 65W, INCLUDING NEAR AND IN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FRI ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS.
DELGADO
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