128
AXNT20 KNHC 160427
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED APR 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0425 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N21W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N21W TO 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF 04N AND BETWEEN 15W AND 40W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
HOWEVER, NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE REST OF THE BASIN. THE
GULF IS DOMINATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES, SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SOUTH OF 22N AND EAST
OF 95W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 3-6 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AMERICA THROUGH WED MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. ELSEWHERE, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS EACH DAY AND MIGRATES WESTWARD. OTHERWISE,
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THU WEST OF 90W AS
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS WILL EXPAND BY FRI THROUGH MUCH OF THE
BASIN, INCLUDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND YUCATAN
CHANNEL, AND WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH SAT. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO CENTRAL AMERICA,
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA,
EASTERN CUBA, NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE REGIONAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SUSTAIN FRESH TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING OFF NW COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 7-10 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT AND MORNING INTO THIS
WEEKEND. IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT, WITH PULSING STRONG WINDS OCCURRING THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THU.
LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY FRI ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THROUGH THE PASSAGES, AS A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WIDESPREAD FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED SAT INTO SUN,
BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA. MODERATE TO
FRESH SW WINDS ARE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 65W AND NORTH OF
28N. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-8 FT. MEANWHILE, A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N46W TO HISPANIOLA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED
NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY TO 60W AND NORTH OF 27N.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
DOMINATED BY A 1027 HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AZORES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE TROPICS SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE BASIN,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF 30W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8
FT ARE FOUND FROM 18N TO 27N AND EAST OF 23W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH SW WINDS WILL OCCUR INTO
EARLY WED, GENERALLY NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W, AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION MOVES EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THIS WEEKEND, AND WIDESPREAD FRESH TO PULSING STRONG NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS, NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 26N, ARE EXPECTED FRI
INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN
THIS FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF 60W WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH WED MORNING. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF 20N THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DELGADO
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