646
AXNT20 KNHC 161041
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED APR 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
METEO-FRANCE GALE WARNING: METEO-FRANCE FORECASTS GALE-FORCE E TO
NE WINDS IN AGADIR FROM 16/12 UTC TO 17/00 UTC. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. FOR MORE DETAILS,
REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST LISTED ON THEIR
WEBSITE HTTPS://WWWMIWS.WMO.INT.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND EXTENDS TO
04N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N19W TO 01S46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 15W, AND
WITHIN 150NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 28N88W, AND CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER NEAR 30N94W. RECENT
BUOY DATA SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF
THESE FRONTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. A TROUGH HAS
BEEN ANALYZED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, AND FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
OTHERWISE, A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO
EXTENDS RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AMERICA THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. ELSEWHERE, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS EACH DAY AND MIGRATES WESTWARD. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THU WEST OF 90W AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS WILL EXPAND BY FRI THROUGH MUCH OF THE
BASIN, INCLUDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL,
AND WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH EARLY SUN. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN HAITI
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH JAMAICA AND INTO EASTERN HONDURAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, A 1006 MB LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. RECENT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT NEAR AND TO THE
WEST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE E WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT AND MORNING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA, PULSING STRONG
WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THU. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU NIGHT INTO FRI ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE, AS A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM 31N45W SOUTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR
THE FRONT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA, OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PREVAILING NW SWELL BEHIND
THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT NORTH OF 26N AND
EAST OF 58W. FARTHER WEST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND RECENT BUOY DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH
NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THIS FRONT, GENERALLY NORTH OF 28.5N.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
DOMINATED BY A 1026 HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AZORES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE TROPICS SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE BASIN,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF 30W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8
FT ARE FOUND FROM 18N TO 31N AND EAST OF 23W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH SW WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING, GENERALLY NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W, AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION MOVES EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM 31N77W INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY, LEADING TO MODERATE TO
FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND, AND WIDESPREAD FRESH TO
PULSING STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO 26N, ARE EXPECTED FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS NORTH
OF 27N AND EAST OF 60W WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF 20N
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
ADAMS
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