579
AXNT20 KNHC 170607
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU APR 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
GUINEA-BISSAU THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N18W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 05N18W ACROSS 02N30W TO 01N41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 02N
TO 04N BETWEEN 19W AND 41W, AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
01N TO 05N BETWEEN 09W AND 16W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AT 24N85W. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE SEEN UP TO 50 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE
OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A
1021 MB HIGH SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR VERACRUZ,
MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE AND SSE WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT
ARE PRESENT OFFSHORE FROM BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 2 FT SEAS
ARE EVIDENT AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE
TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL OCCUR
OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES
WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THU WEST OF 90W AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS IN
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. BY FRI, PULSING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN, INCLUDING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONG WINDS BY EARLY SAT.
LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A RELATIVELY FAIR TRADE-WIND REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO ENE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
DOMINATE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS
AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN BASIN,
INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH
NNE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 2 TO 5 FT ARE SEEN AT THE NORTHERN
BASIN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES, AND GULF OF
HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NE WINDS WILL PULSE
EACH NIGHT AND MORNING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE,
PULSING STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA THU NIGHT, WITH
WIDESPREAD FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ROUGH SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WINDS, WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LOOKING AHEAD, A
LONG PERIOD N SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND THROUGH THE PASSAGES INTO THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 31N45W
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 50 NM NORTHWEST OF THIS
FRONT, EAST OF 75W. FARTHER SOUTHEAST, A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
23N65W IS COUPLING WITH DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 67W. A WEAK
WARM FRONT REACHES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N47W TO 27N63W. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE FOUND NEAR
AND UP TO 60 NM NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO SW TO N WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE
PRESENT NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 65W. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR MADEIRA ACROSS 31N38W TO
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE ESE TO S
WINDS ARE SEEN NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS, NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 35W AND
65W. TO THE SOUTH FROM 03N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO ESE WINDS WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS
DOMINATE. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT
IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI, AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS,
WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES THU NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD STRONG E TO NE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED SAT AND SUN THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH WEST OF 65W EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND,
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS SURROUNDING THE
LOW EAST OF 65W.
CHAN
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