059
AXNT20 KNHC 171721
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU APR 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COAST OF GAMBIA AT
13N117W AND EXTENDS TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N20W TO
THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM
01N-04N.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO
24N87W. WITH RIDGING NORTH OF THE GULF, FRESH S TO SE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE W GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
SEAS ARE 3-5 FT IN THE W GULF AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL OCCUR
OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES
WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WEST OF 90W TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS IN
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. BY FRI, PULSING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN, INCLUDING THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
WITH ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONG WINDS BY EARLY SAT.
LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE
UNITED STATES AND A 1008 MB COLOMBIAN LOW IS FORCING FRESH TO
STRONG NE TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 6-9 FT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE IMPACTED AREAS INCLUDE
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF CUBA, AND PARTICULARLY OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
LIKELY MAINLY AT NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY LATE SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 26N75W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT.
FARTHER EAST, A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N63W TO 31N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH NORTH
OF 25N BETWEEN 55W-67W. ELSEWHERE, A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A 1029 MB BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH NEAR 34N40W TO LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ IS FORCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH
OF 28N AND EAST OF 60W. WINDS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WESTERN
SAHARA ARE NE FRESH TO STRONG WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC SEAS ARE 4-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EAST
OF BERMUDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND INTO FLORIDA STRAITS
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI, AND HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS, WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH
SEAS NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD STRONG E TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE GREATER
ANTILLES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WEST OF 65W EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, PRODUCING FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS SURROUNDING THE LOW, EAST OF 65W.
LANDSEA
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