445
AXNT20 KNHC 180000
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI APR 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COAST OF
GAMBIA AT 13N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N20W, WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W AND TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W AND 51W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM MID-ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWESTWARD
TO OVER THE BASIN. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO EXIST IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH
THESE WINDS. FRESH WIND ARE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS
IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL SECTION, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN
THE NE GULF. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE GULF SECTIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING THIS EVENING.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PULSE
OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND
MOVES WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WEST OF 90W TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
IN THE PLAINS AREA. BY FRI, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN, INCLUDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH
ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONG WINDS BY EARLY SAT. LOOKING
AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OF 1007 MB IN
NORTHWEST COLOMBIAN LOW IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES TO BE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN NORTHEAST
TO EAST SWELL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND 3 TO 6 FT
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 5 TO 7 FT IN THE WEST-CENTRAL SECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND
68W, OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER
THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF CUBA. NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS MAY
PULSE OFF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ACCOMPANIED BY
ROUGH SEAS. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE MONA AND
ANEGADA PASSAGES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUN.
LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH STARTING
TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSTABLE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING SETS
UP OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA AND WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 29N65W, WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 27N70W AND TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
OF 29N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
31N55W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 26N62W AND TO NEAR 23N68W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM SOUTHEAST
OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N TO 27N. ELSEWHERE, A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA AT 34N40W AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH IS GENERALLY INDUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF
28N AND EAST OF 60W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WESTERN SAHARA ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT. SEAS ARE ABOUT 5 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. THE STATIONARY PORTION WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE BY FRI NIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WEST OF 65W EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD,
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS SURROUNDING THE LOW, EAST OF 65W.
AGUIRRE
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