127
AXNT20 KNHC 181815
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI APR 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1750 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W, THEN CURVES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 07N17W
TO 00N27W TO 00N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 04S TO 08N BETWEEN 04W AND 17W AND FROM 04S TO 06N BETWEEN
20W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1030 MB HIGH
CENTERED OFFSHORE NORTH CAROLINA. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS E OF 90W WHILE A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS. ALTIMETER AND SOFAR BUOY DATA
INDICATE 3-5 FT SEAS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF WHILE BUOY
AND OIL RIGS PLATFORMS ARE REPORTING 7-8 FT SEAS W OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE E OF FLORIDA.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TRADE-WIND PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF NORTH CAROLINA IS SUPPORTING THE
CONTINUATION OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO ENE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
BASIN AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PEAK
TO 6 FT WHILE OFF COLOMBIA SEAS ARE 7-9 FT. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN, FRESH
NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE ALONG WITH 5-7 FT SEAS. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH
S WINDS E OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND SOUTH OF CUBA. NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PULSE OFF COLOMBIA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ACCOMPANIED BY ROUGH SEAS. LARGE
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
STARTING TUE NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EAST OF
BERMUDA TO 26N70W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE ARE TWO SURFACE
TROUGHS BETWEEN 57W AND 66W, WHICH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THESE
BOUNDARIES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG N E WINDS EXTENDING W OF
THE FRONT TO ABOUT 76W WHERE SEAS ARE 5-9 FT. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED BY A 1031 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES, COVERS THE
REMAINDER SUBTROPICAL WATERS AND EXTENDS DEEP TO THE TROPICS. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS, EXTENDING
FROM 30N19W TO 27N30W TO 28N37W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND
6-9 FT SEAS ARE ACROSS THESE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING S TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL SUPPORT INCREASING STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS THIS WEEKEND FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE GREATER ANTILLES.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WEST OF 65W EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THIS WEEKEND, PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
SURROUNDING THE LOW, EAST OF 65W.
RAMOS
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