580
AXNT20 KNHC 182303
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT APR 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2255 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
06N12W TO 04N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
04N19W TO 00N48W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT SOUTH
OF 06N AND WEST OF 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STRONG RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE CAROLINAS SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OFF NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE SE GULF
WATERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS
ARE 4-7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE FOUND WEST OF 90W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE E OF
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE REST OF THE BASIN. THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE CAROLINAS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW SOUTH
AMERICA SUSTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, OFF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA, WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND DOWNSTREAM TO 15N, AND ALSO IN THE LEE OF CUBA. SEAS
IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-10 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH
MIDWEEK. NEAR- GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PULSE OFF COLOMBIA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, ACCOMPANIED BY ROUGH SEAS. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL
WILL IMPACT THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES BY SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
INTERACTION OF THESE SYSTEMS RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, EXTENDING NORTH OF 22N AND BETWEEN 52W
AND 62W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR THE
GREATER ANTILLES. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM 31N55W TO 20N72W. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
IS DOMINATED BY A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED NEAR THE
AZORES. MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED
EAST OF 55W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N59W
TO NEAR PUERTO RICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH WEST OF 65W EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND,
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW, EAST OF 65W.
DELGADO
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