272
AXNT20 KNHC 290538
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE APR 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EAST ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO 06N20W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 00N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF 06N BETWEEN 15W
AND 47W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN, ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED NEAR 29N87W. TO THE EAST, A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. NO SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EVIDENT. STRONG WINDS ARE PULSING OVER
THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE DIURNAL
THERMAL TROUGH. LIGHT BREEZES AND NEARLY CALM SEAS ARE NOTED IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND
2 TO 4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT TO 5 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS
EACH EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS RELATED TO A THERMAL
TROUGH COMING OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE FORECAST IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF FOR TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING
S-SW TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS
FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA. FARTHER EAST,
SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS EAST OF 70W. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
NOTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN FLOW ALOFT WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, THE
WIND FLOW PATTERN IS BEING DRIVEN BY RELATIVELY HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS PRESENT NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST, AND
THE USUAL LOW PRESSURE FOUND OFF COLOMBIA. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT, EXCEPT FOR FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF
COLOMBIA, AND MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE LEE
OF CUBA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT OFF OF COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN COMBINED WITH
THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AT
NIGHT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF CUBA, TONIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST THU NIGHT, WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N60W TO 28N80W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THIS, A TROUGH PERSISTS FROM 27N61W TO 19N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND
TROUGH BETWEEN 48W-59W. FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS
ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS AND 3 TO
5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT PREVAIL
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 50W. EAST OF 45W, THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED
BY 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS,
SUPPORTING FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR
31N57W TO 25N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS EARLY TUE. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL ON WED FROM NEAR 31N53W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST WATERS WEST OF 65W FOR REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
ERA
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