361
AXNT20 KNHC 292244
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE APR 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N17W, AND CONTINUES SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05.5N18W TO NEAR 05N22W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES
FROM 05N22W TO 02.5N41W TO 05.5N47W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 02N TO 07.5N BETWEEN 10W AND 31W, AND SOUTH OF 05.5N BETWEEN
32W AND 47W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS A RIDGE FROM OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. MOSTLY DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE BASIN. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, FROM
BOCA GRANDE TO THE EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK. ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE
MOSTLY FAIR AND RAIN FREE ACROSS THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE
RANGE OF 3 TO 5 FT, EXCEPT LESS THAN 3 FT NE PORTIONS, AND UP TO 6
FT IN THE FLORIDA CURRENT NORTH OF CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE GULF WILL
FORCE GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS FORECAST
WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. E WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NIGHTLY
THROUGH THU NIGHT, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DIURNAL TROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY, E WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
GULF FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
REACH THE NE GULF SAT NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN,
S OF 11.5N BETWEEN THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA,
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS DOT THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL, SW AND NW CARIBBEAN, WHERE
SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE FOUND OFFSHORE OF
NW COLOMBIA TO EASTERN PANAMA WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. WINDS
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH SEAS AROUND 3
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BERMUDA HIGH NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL COMBINE
WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
AT NIGHT OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF CUBA THROUGH THU
NIGHT. STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND RETREATS TO THE NE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N56W TO 24.5N69W TO ANDROS
ISLAND, BAHAMAS NEAR 24.5N78W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE OF CAPE
HATTERAS, AND IS PROMOTING MOSTLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND INTO THE BAHAMAS AND WELL OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA. SEAS
ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN N SWELL EXCEPT 4 TO 5 FT OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA.
A PERSISTENT TROUGH RESIDES EAST OF THE FRONT, FROM 30N55W TO THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE GENERALLY ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE NE
CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD TO 23N ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH, N OF 20N AND BETWEEN 47W AND 58W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS OCCURRING AHEAD
OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FARTHER
EAST, A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NW AFRICA AND EXTENDS FROM
31N10W TO 23N19W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 19N AND E OF 22W. A 1029 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS, NEAR 36N35W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
THE EASTERN FRONT IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG N TO NE
WINDS FROM 19N TO 29N E OF 34W, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT IN N
SWELL. ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS S OF 19N, THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS BETWEEN 25W AND 55W,
WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
FRESH N TO NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT N
AND NE AND IN THE LEE OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE BERMUDA HIGH
FOLLOWING THE FRONT WEAKENS, WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH TO MODERATE OR WEAKER SPEEDS ON THU AND THU
NIGHT. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A TROUGH
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND WILL FORCE FRESH NE WINDS
NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF 65W FROM FRI MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY EMERGE OFF OF THE COAST OF NE
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA ON SUN.
STRIPLING
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