120
AXNT20 KNHC 301039
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED APR 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MAURITANIA COAST NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD
TO 07N25W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 04N33W TO 02S40W
AND TO INLAND THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 15W FROM 03N TO 08N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
24W AND 28W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. A RIDGE EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE TO
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EAST OF LOUISIANA. MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF ZONES
WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE LEADING TO MORE CLOUD IS NOTED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF FROM 24N TO 29N WEST OF 93W IN ADVANCE OF A MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS ADVANCING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER
PRESSURES IN TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE, WHERE THE DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH IS EXITING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING STRONG WINDS IN THE AREA. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL SECTION, SLIGHTLY LOWER
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL SECTION AND 3 FT OR LESS
SEAS OVER THE NE SECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE BASIN WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE BASIN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EAST WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DIURNAL TROUGH. FRESH
EAST WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE
SPEEDS THU NIGHT. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRI AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY REACH THE
NE GULF SAT NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ZONES. ALONG WITH
MOISTURE, ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY HAS ALSO INCREASED IN THESE
AREAS, WHERE A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED JET STREAM BRANCH
IS EVIDENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH
OF 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT
SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTION OF THE BASIN. GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN
THE RANGE OF 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS OF 3 TO 5
FT OVER THE WATERS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W AND SOUTH
OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE
OF GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN COMBINED
WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
AT NIGHT OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF CUBA THROUGH THU
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N55W TO 23N65W WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST AHEAD OF IT FROM NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO
TO NEAR 23N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. HIGH PRESSURE
OF 1023 MB IS SITUATED OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND
ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS JUST NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MOSTLY FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMA AND SEAS OF
5 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE GENERALLY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE
FRONT AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF ABOUT 18N.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 16N TO 20N AND EAST OF 31W. SEAS
WITH THESE WINDS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN NORTH SWELL. HIGHER SEAS OF
10 TO 12 FT ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W. THE GRADIENT
RELATED TO THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SUSTAINING FRESH TRADES FROM
14N TO 17N BETWEEN 19W AND 45W ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT
IN NORTHEAST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
THU AND DISSIPATE AFTERWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE FRONT AND
TROUGH WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH THU, THEN BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WEST OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU, THEN BE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 55W THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT THAT SHOULD DEVELOP
INTO A TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL INDUCE FRESH
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF 65W FROM FRI MORNING INTO
THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY EMERGE OFF THE
U.S. SOUTHEASTERN COAST LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
AGUIRRE
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