678
AXNT20 KNHC 010453
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU MAY 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0435 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N27W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N27W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 08N AND EAST OF 23W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF AMERICA, MAINTAINING GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GULF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULT IN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
WATERS. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
PASS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 3-6 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE NOTED IN THE NW AND SE GULF,
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE FRI. ITS
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE BASIN THROUGH SAT MORNING. EAST WINDS
WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NIGHTLY THROUGH FRI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DIURNAL TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THU NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY REACH THE NE GULF SAT NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE BASIN SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF LEADING TO MOSTLY FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST ZONES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN
SEA RESULTS IN AMPLE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN, AFFECTING THE NEARBY ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN,
AFFECTING COSTA RICA, PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND LEE OF CUBA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-7 FT. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AT
NIGHT OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF CUBA THROUGH THU
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, MAINLY NEAR CABO BEATA.
ELSEWHERE, RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR 31N49W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 27N58W, WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT TO 20N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 30N48W TO A 1014
MB LOW PRES NEAR 23N54W AND THEN CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED NORTH OF
22N AND BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. AMPLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO NOTED FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN GREATER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARIES DESCRIBED. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED STRONG WINDS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE CENTERED NORTH OF MADEIRA
ISLAND SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF 28N AND
EAST OF 29W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 10-15 FT. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG N WINDS FROM 14N TO 23N AND EAST OF 25W, ALONG WITH SEAS OF
7-10 FT. THE REST OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, SUSTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS EAST OF 55W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY
THROUGH FRI, THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NW WILL
INDUCE FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 65W FROM
FRI MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRI NIGHT, THEN WEAKEN INTO A BROAD
TROUGH ON SAT. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
DELGADO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page