053
AXNT20 KNHC 012252
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU MAY 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04.5N22W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04.5N22W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 00N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01.5N TO 07.5N
BETWEEN 10W AND 24W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON, BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE
EXCEPTION IS GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZES AND 3 TO 4 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF ALONG 87W-88W, WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE
BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ALONG ABOUT 30N TO SE TEXAS,
AND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE FRI. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
BASIN THROUGH SAT MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NIGHTLY THROUGH FRI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DIURNAL TROUGH. MODERATE
TO FRESH E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FRI INTO SAT FOR MOST OF THE ZONES. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NE GULF SAT NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE BASIN SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE GULF LEADING TO MOSTLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST ZONES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE TO E WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA, THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT
ACROSS THESE AREAS. MODERATE E WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA SOUTH
OF 12N. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN, N OF 14N, AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA. AT THE SAME TIME, FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC,
MAINLY NEAR CABO BEATA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
MATERIALIZE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FRI NIGHT. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. OTHERWISE, RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS FORMED A
1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N56.5W THIS AFTERNOON. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W-SW FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE
IS CREATING UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF IT, AND SUPPORTING ACTIVE WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING S OF 21N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND 45W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
TO 30N BETWEEN 42W AND THE LOW PRESSURE AT 56.5W. NORTH OF THE
LOW, STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N61W TO BEYOND 31N50W. A
SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THIS AREA FOR DAYS EXTENDS FROM
THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA, A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N71W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THESE FEATURES IS PRODUCING MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH,
WITH STRONG NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. SEAS
ACROSS THIS ARE 5 TO 7 FT TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS, WITH GENTLE
WINDS N OF 30N AND ALSO N OF THE BAHAMAS, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 4
FT.
FARTHER EAST, 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE FRONT NEAR
32N35W, AND A 1000 MB GALE CENTER IS NORTH OF MADEIRA NEAR
36N13W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS AND 8 TO 14 FT SEAS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 30W, REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE
SOUTH AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
PREVAIL BETWEEN 30W AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND
TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT AND A SURFACE
TROUGH, WITH A WEAK LOW ALONG IT, WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W AND 60W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FRESH TO
STRONG SE TO S WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE E
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON FRI, THEN NW OF IT ON SAT DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH/LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
N. THE LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUN, AND THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE NORTHERN
END OF THE TROUGH AXIS, AFFECTING MAINLY THE NE WATERS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN.
STRIPLING
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