204
AXNT20 KNHC 022047
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT MAY 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11.5N16W TO 08N16W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N20W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST GULF. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
SE BREEZES THE EASTERN GULF, AND MODERTE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF, ALTHOUGH FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS MAY BE PULSING
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
2 TO 4 FT IN THE NORTHEAST GULF, AND 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS ARE ACTIVE OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH SAT MORNING SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS IN THE NE GULF. EAST WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DIURNAL TROUGH. MAINLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS EARLY SAT, AND
REMAIN THERE ON SUN BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE BASIN ON MON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF LEADING TO
MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
ZONES EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE
WESTERN GULF BY EARLY TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A 1008 MB
COLOMBIAN LOW IS ONLY FORCING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE FRESH NE WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND OFF COLOMBIA. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH,
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING TODAY.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME, FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, MAINLY NEAR CABO BEATA. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO
SE WINDS WILL PULSE NORTH OF HONDURAS, INCREASING TO FRESH TO
STRONG TUE NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
MOST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
MOSTLY STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED
NEAR 25N50W, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE WITHIN
120 NM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRESSURE. 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N70W. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS
NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 55W. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS AND SEAS TO
8 FT ARE ONGOING WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE. ELSEWHERE, THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 32N31W, SUPPORTING
MOSTLY MODERATE NE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, WITH 5 TO 8
FT SEAS IN N SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W AND 60W THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER
NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND SAT DUE TO THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH/LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
THE LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUN, AND A REMAINING TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH
AXIS AFFECTING THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 60W. LOOKING
AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THEN STALL NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUN AND MON.
CHRISTENSEN
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