777
AXNT20 KNHC 030432
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT MAY 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0429 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N16W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N19W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO NEAR 02N48W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK DIURNAL TROUGH IS EVIDENT
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE BREEZES THE EASTERN GULF, AND MAINLY MODERATE SE
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF, ALTHOUGH FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE
PULSING OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE 2 TO 4 FT IN THE NORTHEAST GULF, AND 4 TO 6 FT
ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OFF THE
COAST OF TX AND LA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH SAT MORNING SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE NE GULF. EAST WINDS WILL PULSE TO
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DIURNAL TROUGH, WHILE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO
SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA THROUGH TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS EARLY SAT, AND REMAIN THERE ON SUN BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE BASIN ON MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF LEADING TO MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST ZONES EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCREASING TO
FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY EARLY TUE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY REACH THE NW GULF BY
EARLY THU.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A 1010 MB
COLOMBIAN LOW IS ONLY FORCING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE FRESH NE WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
OFF COLOMBIA, AND OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN HONDURAS. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS DEPICTED
AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, IN THE LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA, AND
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, MAINLY NEAR CABO BEATA, TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS WILL PULSE NORTH OF HONDURAS,
INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 29.5N52W
TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N51W TO 14N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED EAST OF THESE FEATURES FROM 21N TO 28N
BETWEEN 38W AND 50.5W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 39N59W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS FROM 18N TO 29N
AND WEST OF 52W. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE
ONGOING WITHIN 300 NM IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLES OF THE
1014 MB LOW. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY MODERATE NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, WITH 5 TO 9 FT SEAS IN N SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
1018 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 29.5N52W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
25N51W TO 14N59W. THESE FEATURES WILL GENERALLY PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W AND 60W THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG
NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NW
PART OF IT TONIGHT AND SAT DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE TROUGH/LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
FROM 31N60W TO 30N65W TO 31N69W WILL MERGE WITH THESE FEATURES
SAT. THE LOWS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUN, WHILE THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH
AXIS AFFECTING MAINLY THE NE WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THEN STALL NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUN
AND MON.
KRV
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