794
AXNT20 KNHC 030824
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT MAY 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0750 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11.5N15.5W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
06N22W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N22W TO NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL
AT 02N50.5W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
01N TO 07N BETWEEN 09W AND 38W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EARLY THIS MORNING JUST WEST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TO THE TEXAS COAST WHERE A
COLD FRONT IS NEARING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND
SOUTH 26N DUE TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE, WITH
WINDS JUST EARLIER FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PER
OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER NORTH OF 26N.
SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS IN THE NE GULF, WITH 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT LOCALLY TO 6 FT OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN YUCATAN DUE TO THE
EARLIER STRONG WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE OFF THE COAST FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TEXAS
AND FAR NE MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS SOUTH OF 26N, AND GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. EAST WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DIURNAL TROUGH, WHILE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY AND TONIGHT, SHIFTING EAST OF THE BASIN ON MON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF LEADING TO
MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
ZONES EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE IN THE NE GULF,
INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY EARLY TUE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY REACH
THE NW GULF BY EARLY THU.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A 1010 MB
COLOMBIAN LOW IS ONLY FORCING FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE APPROACH TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, EARLIER FRESH TO STRONG PER ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA, WITH FRESH WINDS ALSO FOUND OFFSHORE HONDURAS,
IN THE LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA, AND IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
OFFSHORE SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA TO NW VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5
FT NEAR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 3 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM NEAR THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA,
INCLUDING ADJACENT WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, IN THE LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA, AND
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, MAINLY NEAR CABO BEATA, EARLY
THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS WILL PULSE NORTH OF
HONDURAS, INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BASIN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N52W TO 26N55W SUPPORTS FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE
AXIS DUE TO A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE
WEST OF BERMUDA. 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR 25.5N51W WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE LOW TO 21.5N47W TO 12.5N61W. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED EAST OF THE LOW
AND ATTENDANT TROUGH, FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 35W AND THE TROUGH.
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA
NEAR 33N71W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE WINDS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ZONES WITH MAINLY 3 TO 6 FT
SEAS, LOCALLY FRESH NEAR THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA,
INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH 5 TO 9
FT SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL, HIGHEST BETWEEN THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF AFRICA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SIMILAR MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW PART OF THE TROUGH THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH/LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. MEANWHILE A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 31N62W TO 30N66.5W TO 31N69.5W WILL DISSIPATE BY
TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THEN STALL
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUN AND MON.
LEWITSKY
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