518
AXNT20 KNHC 031558
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT MAY 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
06N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N20W TO NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL
AT 02N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
02N-07N EAST OF 35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AS OF 1500 UTC, A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE GULF EXTENDING FROM
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W TO NEAR THE US-TEXAS BORDER NEAR 26N98W. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NEAR THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 25N98W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-95W AND SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM
23N-26N WEST OF 94W. STRONG TO GALE-FORCE GUSTS AND LARGE SEAS MAY
BE PRESENT NEAR THESE THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE GENTLE
TO MODERATE WITH SEAS 2-5 FT ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE BASIN BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FURTHER AIDED BY A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
28N90W AND TO 27N95W, AND BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
OFFSHORE SOUTH TEXAS TO NE MEXICO. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 26N, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ELSEWHERE. EAST WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DIURNAL
TROUGH, WHILE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH
WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND TO EAST OF THE BASIN ON MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF LEADING TO MOSTLY MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST ZONES EARLY NEXT
WEEK, EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE IN THE NE GULF, INCREASING TO
FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY EARLY TUE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY REACH THE NW GULF BY
EARLY THU.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH A 1009 MB
COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE, IN THE LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA, AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE.
SEAS ARE 2-5 FT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE WATERS FROM E CUBA AND
JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BETWEEN THE GREATER ANTILLES AND BERMUDA IS
ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
NOTED OVER WATERS NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS WILL PULSE
NORTH OF HONDURAS, INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG TUE NIGHT AND WED
NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BASIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A BROAD 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N51W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING TO 18N58W, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A CO-LOCATED UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 20N-27N
BETWEEN 40W-48W. WINDS IN THE LOW'S N SEMICIRCLE ARE MODERATE TO
FRESH WITH SEAS 6-7 FT WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE, A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING ACROSS THE BERMUDA AND
AZORES HIGHS NORTH TO THE AREA TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ IS
ONLY PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC. SEAS ARE 5-8 FT IN MIXED WIND WAVES AND N SWELL EAST OF
45W AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO 27N57W AND HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF
BERMUDA SUPPORTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS WEST OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 59W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS TO A TROUGH THAT DRIFTS WESTWARD. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THEN STALL NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST SUN THROUGH MON, THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT AROUND
MID-WEEK.
LANDSEA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page