390
AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE MAY 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0520 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W AND
EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
05N27W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 04N51W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS ONGOING OFF W AFRICA FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 08W AND
16W, AND FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LONGBOAT KEY, FLORIDA TO
27N89W, WHERE IT BECOMES A SOLID STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO
FREEPORT, TEXAS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING BETWEEN THE SOLID STATIONARY FRONT AND THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. WINDS WEST OF 88W ARE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM THE ESE, WHILE GENTLE OR MODERATE WINDS ARE
ONGOING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE 1-4 FT IN THE E GULF
AND 4-6 FT IN THE W GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
WILL WASH OUT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW, PULSING TO STRONG AT
TIMES, OVER THE WESTERN ZONES, AND MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-WEEK. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS
THE BASIN THU AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. THAT FRONT MAY REACH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THU NIGHT, STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO BY EARLY FRI, THEN SLOWING
FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY EARLY SAT. SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
IS CREATING HAZY CONDITIONS IN SOME SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF,
WITH THE LOWEST REPORTED VISIBILITY NEAR THE SW GULF COAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND COLOMBIA. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED FRESH
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT ACROSS THE
BASIN. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS E CUBA, HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PULSE NORTH OF HONDURAS, INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS
NIGHTLY STARTING TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WELL INTO THE
WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH NIGHTLY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THROUGH SAT, INCLUDING IN
THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OFF COLOMBIA FRI
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N63W
TO 19N59W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NORTHEAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGHS COVER THE AREA N OF 23N BETWEEN 52W AND 62W.
FARTHER WEST, A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N79W
TO CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA IS SUPPORTING SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS JUST N OF FREEPORT. OTHERWISE, A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N24W TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N40W
WHERE IT THEN TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO
26N48W TO 28N55W. EXCEPT FOR THE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ELSEWHERE, AND SEAS ARE MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE TROUGH
DRIFTS WESTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DECREASE MID-WEEK
AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS. A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWEST AS
WARM FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN MAY SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE AGAIN
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
RAMOS
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