893
AXNT20 KNHC 060823
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE MAY 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COAST OF
GUINEA AT 10N14W TO 05N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N23W TO THE
COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 04.5N52.5W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN 18W
AND 29W, AND FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 29W AND 45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 02N TO 10.5N BETWEEN
08N AND 17.5W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY,
FLORIDA TO 27N86W TO JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON BAY, TEXAS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING OVER THE BASIN WITH FRESH TO
STRONG E TO SE WINDS OVER THE SW HALF OF THE WATERS, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER THE NE HALF. SEAS ARE 3 TO 6 FT OVER
THE SW HALF, AND 3 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL
WASH OUT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG FLOW OVER THE SW HALF OF THE
BASIN, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
ACROSS THE BASIN THU AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. THAT FRONT MAY
REACH ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THU NIGHT, STRETCHING FROM THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO BY EARLY FRI, THEN
SLOWING FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT. SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS CREATING HAZY CONDITIONS IN SOME SECTIONS
OF THE WESTERN GULF, WITH THE LOWEST REPORTED VISIBILITY NEAR THE
SW GULF COAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND COLOMBIA. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED FRESH
WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT IN THE LEE
OF CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS FAR EASTERN
CUBA, HISPANIOLA, AND PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS, AS WELL AS
OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA, AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PULSE NORTH OF HONDURAS, INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS
NIGHTLY STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WELL INTO THE
WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH NIGHTLY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THROUGH SAT, INCLUDING IN
THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OFF COLOMBIA FRI
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N62W
TO 20N59W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. FARTHER WEST, A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT
IS ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF THE SE UNITED STATES.
THIS BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTING SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF 28N AND BETWEEN 74W AND THE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N23W TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N46W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH CONTINUES TO 28.5N55.5W. EXCEPT FOR THE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
TO 10 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH, WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE, AND SEAS ARE MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE MARINE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS WESTWARD. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL START TO DECREASE MID-WEEK AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS. A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWEST AS WARM FRONT THROUGH
MID-WEEK, THEN MAY SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.
LEWITSKY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page