373
AXNT20 KNHC 062300
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE MAY 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11.5N15.54W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
04.5N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04.5N25W TO NEAR NEAR THE COAST
OF BRAZIL AT 00N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 00N TO 09.5N BETWEEN 08W AND 30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA, THEN BECOME A WARM FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE NEW ORLEANS AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND EASTERN TEXAS IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN WEST OF
90W, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 6 TO
9 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF 91W, 3 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE
WEST OF 86W, AND 3 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. SKIES ARE GENERALLY FAIR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
OCCURRING EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE NE GULF HAS ENDED, WITH THE
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF NOW FEEDING INTO A LARGE
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS AND MOST OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NE GULF
WILL WASH OUT TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO
AND TEXAS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE W
HALF OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY WED. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE BASIN THU AS
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. THAT FRONT WILL REACH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES THU NIGHT, FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
VERACRUZ, MEXICO BY EARLY FRI, FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT, THEN FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY SUN. SMOKE FROM
AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS CREATING HAZY
CONDITIONS IN SOME SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF, WITH THE LOWEST
REPORTED VISIBILITY NEAR THE SW GULF COAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND COLOMBIA DUE TO A PERSISTENT BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED FRESH WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS, THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT
ACROSS THE MOST OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT IN THE LEE OF
CUBA, AND TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 16N AND E
OF 70W, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS HISPANIOLA, PUERTO RICO
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 11N AND 13.5N.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD ATLANTIC TROUGH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NW AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI, AND FINALLY ALLOW
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL +START TO INCREASE OFF COLOMBIA FRI
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PULSE
NORTH OF HONDURAS, INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS NIGHTLY
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THROUGH SAT, INCLUDING IN THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC, BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
HAS FORMED A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26.5N64W, WITH A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 23N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE 1015 MB LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO BEYOND 31N AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
OF THE LOW TO 50W. PEAK SEAS AREA AROUND 10 FT WITHIN 180 NM NORTH
OF THE LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W. FARTHER
WEST, A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
OF THE SE UNITED STATES. THIS BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF 31N AND
BETWEEN 75W AND THE BOUNDARY. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS DOMINATE THE WATERS WEST OF 65W THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND INTO
FLORIDA, WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD. SEAS ACROSS THESE WATERS ARE 2 TO
4 FT EXCEPT TO 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE TO THE
EAST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N20W TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 23N45W. THE COLD FRONT WRAPS CYCLONICALLY INTO BROAD 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 35N25W. EXCEPT FOR THE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO
10 FT NORTH OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE, WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ARE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH,
WITH MODERATE SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26.5N64W AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS THE LOW AND TROUGH DRIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWEST AS WARM FRONT THROUGH
MID-WEEK, THEN MAY SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
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