996
AXNT20 KNHC 081706
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU MAY 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1706 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
METEO-FRANCE GALE WARNING: CYCLONIC WINDS AT TIMES TO GALE-FORCE
WITH SEVERE GUSTS ARE FORECAST IN THE IRVING HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ZONE UNTIL 09/00 UTC. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM, ANCHORED BY A 1007 MB OCCLUDED LOW CENTERED NEAR
33.5N28W. FOR MORE DETAILS, REFER TO THE METEO- FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST LISTED ON THE WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N26W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 04N50W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM 01S TO 07N BETWEEN
00W AND 21W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 00N TO 06N EAST OF 28W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N
TO 09N BETWEEN 37W AND 46W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
LOW PRESSURE 1015 MB IS CENTERED NEAR MILTON, FLORIDA WITH A
STATIONARY DISSIPATING FRONT FROM THE LOW TO SOUTH PADRE ISLAND,
TEXAS, CONTINUING AS A TROUGH SOUTHWARD OFF VERACRUZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED ALONG THE DISSIPATING FRONT AND
OVER THE NE GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED NW OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE 3 TO 6 FT WEST OF
87W AND 2 TO 3 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TODAY, THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE SE ACROSS THE BASIN BY FRI MORNING, REACHING FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. THEN, THE COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR VERACRUZ, MEXICO
BY SAT MORNING, AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON SUN MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. SMOKE
FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS CREATING HAZY
CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE W AND SE GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SSW OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PREVENT
THE BERMUDA HIGH FROM BUILDING INTO THE BASIN, AND IS MAINTAINING
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS RESULTING
IN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN,
EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND FRESH NE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE,IN THE
LEE OF EASTERN CUBA, AND SOUTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SEAS ARE 2
TO 4 FT ACROSS THE MOST OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT 4 TO 6 FT IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AND ACROSS THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND IN
THE SE CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED N OF HONDURAS AT NIGHT THROUGH SAT
EVENING. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THROUGH FRI, INCLUDING
IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC, BEFORE INCREASING THIS WEEKEND AS THE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL
START TO INCREASE TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND OFF
COLOMBIA FRI NIGHT, THEN TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS SAT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR 26.5N67W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING DIMINISHING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO WEST OF
THE LOW AND TROUGH FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN THE FEATURES AND 71W.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS ANALYZED EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS EAST OF THE
TROUGH, NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS COVERING AN AREA FROM 16N TO 26.5N BETWEEN 53W AND
61W. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS BEING
INTERSECTED BY A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N25W TO 27.5N35W
TO 31N47W. MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO
29N, WHILE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FOUND FROM 29N TO 31N. ROUGH
SEAS TO 12 FT FOLLOW THIS FRONT S OF 31N, WITH HIGHER VALUES NE OF
THE AREA INCLUDING NEAR-GALE WINDS IN THE W QUADRANT OF THE LOW
IN METEO-FRANCE'S FORECAST AREA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26.5N67W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH
AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
NE OF THE LOW CENTER. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY FRI. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER NEAR 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W THROUGH FRI,
AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY SAT MORNING. A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
AND JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
BACK NORTHWEST AS WARM FRONT TODAY, THEN MAY SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE
AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WEEKEND.
KRV
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