187
AXNT20 KNHC 101612
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT MAY 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N17W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 05N17W TO 01N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR NORTH OF 05N BETWEEN 17W AND 43W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AT THE
BORDER OF FLORIDA AND ALABAMA SOUTH TO 27N88W, WHERE A STALLED
FRONT THEN CONTINUES TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN
83W AND 87W, ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE GULF WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH
SE TO S WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WITH 3-5 FT SEAS. WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF, MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL. IN THE SW BAY OF
CAMPECHE, WINDS ARE PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS AND PEAK SEAS ARE TO
8 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL MEANDER EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT, LEADING TO STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS AND RAPIDLY
BUILDING SEAS NEAR CONVECTION. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. PULSING FRESH N WINDS WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INTO EARLY
SUN. FARTHER EAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOOKING
AHEAD, THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO EXIT THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THE GULF OF AMERICA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG TRADES ARE EVIDENT IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, WITH PEAK SEAS
TO 8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 5-7 FT PREVAIL IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN, TRADES ARE MAINLY MODERATE WITH 3-5 FT SEAS. TRADES MAY
PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE, THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. PERIODS OF NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA. BUILDING ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH THE
STRONG WINDS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO EARLY SUN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS WEAKENING NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE 8-10 FT NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 34W IN MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS. 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS. GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, WITH 4-7
FT SEAS IN OPEN WATERS. TRADES ARE LOCALLY FRESH FROM 16N TO 23N
BETWEEN 40W AND 53W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES TONIGHT INTO SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. STRONG WINDS
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK OFFSHORE OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY MIDWEEK. ELSEWHERE, PULSING
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF 65W THROUGH
SUN, ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
25N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MAHONEY
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