082
AXNT20 KNHC 110535
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN MAY 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N19W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 04N19W TO 01N30W TO 01S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 12-21W, AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 33-47W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SE MISSISSIPPI TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR GALE
FORCE IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS, ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH 3-5 FT SEAS. WEST OF THE
FRONT, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH NW TO N WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE
SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT, LEADING TO STRONG AND
ERRATIC WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS NEAR CONVECTION. MODERATE
TO FRESH N AND MODERATE SEAS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH W-NW WINDS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INTO SUN. FARTHER
EAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG S TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
THE FRONT THROUGH SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOOKING AHEAD, THE
FRONT IS SLATED TO EXIT THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THE GULF OF AMERICA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING OFFSHORE NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE
WINDS ARE BLOWING FROM THE E AND SE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF AMERICA. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE
SEAS ARE LOCALLY 8-9 FT, AND OFFSHORE CUBA WHERE SEAS ARE 2-4 FT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN W
OF 84W AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MORE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N, IN THE
VICINITY OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE, THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. PERIODS OF NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA. BUILDING ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH THE
STRONG WINDS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO EARLY SUN. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MIDWEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING STEMMING FROM A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 35N44W. AS A RESULT, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC E OF 60W. SEAS
ARE LOCALLY 8-9 FT IN AN AREA N OF 26N AND E OF 30W, RESULTING
FROM REMNANT NW SWELL BEHIND A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT. TO THE W OF
60W, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS S OF 25N AND W OF 70W WHERE E WINDS ARE
MODERATE TO FRESH AND SEAS ARE 2-5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE-S
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OFF FLORIDA THROUGH SUN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SE UNITED
STATES. STRONG S TO SE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY
MIDWEEK. ELSEWHERE, PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF 65W THROUGH SUN, ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF 25N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
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