061
AXNT20 KNHC 081703
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN JUN 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1640 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 54W/55W
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALONG THE ITCZ TO 10N BETWEEN BETWEEN 45W AND 55W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N19W. THE ITCZ THEN BEGINS NEAR 07.5N22W AND
EXTENDS TO 07N32W TO 06.5N46W TO THE COAST OF FRESH GUIANA NEAR
05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N
TO 07N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W, FROM 04N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 22W AND 45W,
AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY, BEHIND AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND IS NOW
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT THE SURFACE, A
BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE EVENING YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG ABOUT
94W AND WEAKEN. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL E
OF 90W, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE NOTED W OF 90W.
SLIGHT SEAS AT 3 FT OR LESS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WHILE
MODERATE SEAS 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND A RIDGE INTO
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BUILD MODESTLY
WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD AT NIGHT,
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE GULF OF
AMERICA AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CENTRAL
AMERICA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, S OF 17.5W BETWEEN 80W AND 84.5W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS LOW TO MIDDLE-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES OF THE BORDERS OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. SHALLOW SAHARAN AIR GENERALLY DOMINATES THE REST OF THE
BASIN EASTWARD TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE W-SW
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN SOUTH
AMERICA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 18N OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT,
EXCEPT 9 TO 10 FT OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN,
EXCEPT FOR A LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF
HONDURAS, INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG CONVECTION JUST SE OF THAT
AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING A RIDGE N OF
THE REGION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL BASIN, SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, EXCEPT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NEAR
THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO ROUGH WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS, AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC BY EARLY
MON, CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.
OF NOTE: A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN CONTINUES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHEAST
HONDURAS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. PLEASE
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 54W/55W. UWM CIMSS SAL ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS SAHARAN AIR AND ASSOCIATED SUSPENDED DUST DOMINATES THE
ATLANTIC TRADE WIND ZONE S OF 21N FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, THE ENTIRE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE, CENTERED ON A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
36N41W. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADES PREVAIL S OF 21N, FROM THE
CABO VERDES TO THE LESSER ANTILLES, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT. DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SAL, NO CONVECTION IS NOTED OUTSIDE THAT
NEAR THE ITCZ. W OF 55W, FRESH TRADES PREVAIL S OF 22N, WHILE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS, BECOMING
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS NORTH OF 27N AND WEST OF 65W. SEAS
ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT WEST OF 55W. NARROW CONVERGENCE LINES OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION ARE NOTED N OF 28N ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 55W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD MODESTLY W-SW INTO THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA THROUGH TUE,
THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO
PULSE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA, WITH
PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF NE FLORIDA AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH
OF 22N THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK UNTIL THE HIGH WEAKENS.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG OFF NE FLORIDA MON
NIGHT.
STRIPLING
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