452
AXNT20 KNHC 082330
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 56W
SOUTH OF 17N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE WAVE FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 54W AND
57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE
WAVE FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N19W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND
CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 08N40W TO 09N45W AND TO THE COAST OF
FRESH GUIANA NEAR 06N54W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-32W, WITHIN 120 NM NORTH
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 45W-54W AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-38W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL E OF 90W,
WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE NOTED W OF 90W. SLIGHT SEAS
AT 3 FT OR LESS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WHILE MODERATE
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL E OF 90W, WHILE MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS ARE NOTED W OF 90W. SLIGHT SEAS AT 3 FT OR LESS
ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WHILE MODERATE SEAS 3 TO 5 FT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ITS RIDGE
INTO THE EASTERN GULF, BUILDING MODESTLY WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL
GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES IN SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES S OF 18N OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT, EXCEPT 9 TO 10 FT OFFSHORE OF
NW COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 13N67W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TROUGH.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF 16N AND BETWEEN
77W AND THE COAST CENTRAL AMERICA IS DUE TO A NEARBY MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
BASIN, SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK, EXCEPT IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO ROUGH WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, AS WELL AS IN THE
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC BY EARLY MON CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.
OF NOTE: A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN CONTINUES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHEAST
HONDURAS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
MAINTAINING THE POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. PLEASE
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 56W. UWM CIMSS SAL ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS SAHARAN AIR AND ASSOCIATED SUSPENDED DUST DOMINATES THE
ATLANTIC TRADE WIND ZONE SOUTH OF 21N FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA
TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, THE ENTIRE BASIN IS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
ANALYZED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 36N21W. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES PREVAIL SOUTH OF 21N, FROM THE CABO VERDES TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAL, NO CONVECTION IS NOTED OUTSIDE THAT NEAR THE ITCZ. W OF 55W,
FRESH TRADES REMAIN SOUTH OF 22N, WHILE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS, BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH S TO
SW WINDS NORTH OF 27N AND WEST OF 65W. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5
FT WEST OF 55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ARE NORTH OF
ABOUT 15N AND WEST OF 30W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
MODESTLY W-SW INTO THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUE,
THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO
PULSE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA, WITH
PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 22N THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK UNTIL
THE HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG
OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA MON NIGHT.
AGUIRRE
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