640
AXNT20 KNHC 090421
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON JUN 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0420 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 56.5W
SOUTH OF 17N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE WAVE FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W.
THE REST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS OCCURRING
OVER FRENSH GUIANA AND SURINAME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N22W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND
CONTINUES TO 07N33W TO 07N51.5W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXITING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA SOUTH OF 12N.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 20.5W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED
WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-51W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF 90W,
EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EAST OF 90W, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.
SLIGHT SEAS AT 3 FT OR LESS ARE NOTED EAST OF 90W GULF, WHILE
MODERATE SEAS 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL WEST OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ITS RIDGE
INTO THE EASTERN GULF, BUILDING MODESTLY WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY
AND MOVES WESTWARD, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ELSEWHERE IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES IN SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO
8 FT, EXCEPT 9 TO 10 FT SEAS OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS PREVAIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF 16N AND BETWEEN
79W AND THE COAST CENTRAL AMERICA IS DUE TO A NEARBY MID TO
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL BASIN,
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK, EXCEPT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
ROUGH WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC BY EARLY MON, CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.
OF NOTE: A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN CONTINUES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHEAST
HONDURAS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
MAINTAINING THE POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. PLEASE
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 56.5W, PLEASE REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. UWM CIMSS SAL
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SAHARAN AIR AND ASSOCIATED SUSPENDED DUST
DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC TRADE WIND ZONE SOUTH OF 21N FROM THE COAST
OF AFRICA TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, THE ENTIRE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ANALYZED
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 37N41W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
PREVAIL SOUTH OF 21N, FROM THE CABO VERDE TO THE LESSER ANTILLES,
WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SAL, NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED OUTSIDE THAT NEAR THE ITCZ. WEST OF 55W,
MODERATE TRADES REMAIN SOUTH OF 25N, WHILE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS, BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH S TO
SW WINDS NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF 70W. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 6
FT WEST OF 55W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
MODESTLY W-SW INTO THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA THROUGH TUE, THEN
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PULSE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA, WITH PULSING
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF NE FLORIDA AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 22N
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK UNTIL THE HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG OFF NE FLORIDA MON NIGHT.
KRV
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