166
AXNT20 KNHC 091720
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON JUN 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THIS ANALYSIS. ITS
AXIS RUNS ALONG 20W FROM 03N TO 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 40W FROM
02N TO 12N, AND IS MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE'S AXIS. CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN
THIS WAVE AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 38W
AND 49W.
ANOTHER CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS HAS ITS AXIS ALONG
57W S OF 17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 10N BETWEEN 54W-58W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N19W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED IN TWO SEGMENTS,
BROKEN BY A TROPICAL ALONG ALONG 40W. ONE SEGMENT RUNS FROM
07N21W TO 06N35W, AND THE OTHER FROM 08N43W TO 09N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND WITHIN 250 NM OF THESE
FEATURES.
THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN TO THE COLOMBIA LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN, GENERALLY
SOUTH OF 12N.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF, IN THE VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF 90W,
EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EAST OF 90W, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. SLIGHT
SEAS AT 3 FT OR LESS ARE NOTED EAST OF 89W, WHILE MODERATE SEAS 3
TO 5 FT PREVAIL WEST OF 89W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ITS RIDGE INTO
THE EASTERN GULF, BUILDING MODESTLY WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ARE OBSERVED VIA SATELLITE OFF THE COASTS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ELSEWHERE, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT,
EXCEPT FOR 9 TO 10 FT SEAS ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL BASIN,
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC MOVES THROUGH THE BASIN, EXCEPT IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH
TO STRONG NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO ROUGH WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, AS WELL AS IN THE
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC TODAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTIONS FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN AN AREA N OF 29N
BETWEEN 75W AND 78W, WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION PRODUCING FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH ANALYZED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 35N44W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES PREVAIL SOUTH OF 22N, FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINING WATERS N OF 22N.
SEAS OF 6-8 FT PREVAIL S OF 20N, WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT PREVAILING TO
THE N OF 20N.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
MODESTLY W-SW INTO THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA THROUGH TUE, THEN
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PULSE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA, WITH PULSING
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF NE FLORIDA AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 22N
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK UNTIL THE HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG OFF NE FLORIDA TONIGHT.
ADAMS
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