939
AXNT20 KNHC 092312
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE W COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
19W FROM 04N TO 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 06N TO 14N, AND IS
MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS
AXIS IS ALONG 58W/59W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 10N BETWEEN
50W AND 58.5W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N20W, THEN WESTWARD TO 07N33W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07N33W TO 06N55W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SUPPORTING A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH MODERATE SEAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ITS RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD, LOCALLY
AND BRIEFLY STRONG AT TIMES. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ELSEWHERE
IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE, SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, CONVECTION HAS DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING, LOCAL
SEA BREEZES AND MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE LIFTING. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT IS ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE,
SHALLOW MOISTURE, EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW, IS MOVING ACROSS
THE BASIN PRODUCING ISOLATED TO TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT,
EXCEPT FOR 9 TO 10 FT SEAS ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
BASIN, SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC MOVES THROUGH THE BASIN,
EXCEPT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. WINDS WILL
PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL BE ROUGH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, AS WELL
AS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC, CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
PLEASE, SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC FORECAST
AREA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE, PARTICULARLY S OF 20N W OF 40W. ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN
THESE WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE N OF
HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO ABOUT 23N
WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
MODESTLY SW TO S INTO THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA THROUGH TUE,
THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO
PULSE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA, WITH
PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF NE FLORIDA AND ELSEWHERE
SOUTH OF 22N THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK UNTIL THE HIGH
WEAKENS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG OFF NE
FLORIDA TONIGHT NEAR A FRONTAL TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINAS.
GR
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