224
AXNT20 KNHC 100428
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0428UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE W COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
19W FROM 05N TO 17N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED
FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W FROM 06.5N TO 15N, AND IS
MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
DEPICTED FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS
AXIS IS ALONG 59.5W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 11N BETWEEN 52W AND
59W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08.5N21.5W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08.5N21.5W TO
04.5N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 20W AND 39W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SUPPORTING A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH
WINDS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE NE GULF
OFFSHORE WATERS OF PANAMA CITY BEACH, FLORIDA AND MOBILE, ALABAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ITS RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH E
TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD, AND BRIEFLY REACH STRONG
SPEEDS AT TIMES. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE
WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE, SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, CONVECTION HAS DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING, LOCAL
SEA BREEZES AND MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE LIFTING. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT IS ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTION.
ELSEWHERE, SHALLOW MOISTURE, EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW, IS
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL, SW CARIBBEAN, AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OVER
THE SOUTH-CETRAL PART OF THE BASIN SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT, EXCEPT FOR
9 TO 10 FT SEAS OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS,
EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL BASIN,
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC MOVES THROUGH THE BASIN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE
TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL
BE ROUGH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC, CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
PLEASE, SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC FORECAST
AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, PARTICULARLY S OF 18N W OF 40W. ROUGH SEAS
ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS ARE N OF HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS TO ABOUT 23N WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
MODESTLY W-SW INTO THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA THROUGH TUE, THEN
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PULSE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA, WITH PULSING
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF NE FLORIDA AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 22N
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK UNTIL THE HIGH WEAKENS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG OFF NE FLORIDA TONIGHT NEAR A FRONTAL
TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINAS.
KRV
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