392
AXNT20 KNHC 101639
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1605 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 11N AND BETWEEN 52W AND 47W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 06N TO 12N AND BETWEEN 52W AND 63W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N25W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N25W TO 06N45W AND THEN FROM 06N50W TO
06N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF 09N AND
EAST OF 21W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NE GULF WATERS, WHILE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUPPORTS MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS. HOWEVER,
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY E-SE WINDS ARE FOUND OFF NORTHERN YUCATAN
AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ITS RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH
E TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD, AND BRIEFLY REACH STRONG
SPEEDS AT TIMES. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE
WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE, SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SUPPORT ALOFT RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN, ALSO
AFFECTING NW COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
WELL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FORCES FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-9 FT (2-3 M), EXCEPT
FOR SEAS OF 3-4 FT (1 M) IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL BASIN,
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC MOVES THROUGH THE BASIN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE
TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL
BE ROUGH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC, CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
PLEASE, SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE SEASONAL 1030 MB BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N45W
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF 18N AND WEST OF 40W. ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN
THESE WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO ABOUT 23N,
WITH MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED BETWEEN
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
MODESTLY W-SW INTO THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY, THEN
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PULSE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA, WITH PULSING
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF NE FLORIDA AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 22N
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK UNTIL THE HIGH WEAKENS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
OFF NE FLORIDA WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL
TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINAS WEAKENS.
DELGADO
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