424
AXNT20 KNHC 110009
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N-10N EAST OF 25W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 06N-13N AND BETWEEN 45W-55W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM
13N-15N FROM 55W-62W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N25W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N25W TO 05N47W AND THEN FROM 05N50W TO
05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 05N-10N EAST OF 25W. THE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 11N73W NEAR COASTAL NE
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF 12N IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.
..GULF OF AMERICA
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF IS FORCING ONLY GENTLE WINDS ACROSS
FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 88W. THIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAINLY OVER COASTAL
LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BEING TRIGGERED BY A
STATIONARY FRONT TO ITS NORTH.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL EXTEND ITS RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BRIEFLY REACH STRONG SPEEDS AT TIMES. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS
ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF, WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
RIDGING NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH A 1010 MB COLOMBIAN
LOW IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN TODAY. WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE TRADES COVER
THE W CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 5-9 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN,
5-7 FT IN THE E CARIBBEAN, 2-4 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 12N
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE N OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, SPREADING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES THROUGH THE BASIN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF CUBA WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES, FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AL LEAST
EARLY THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
PLEASE, SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
A 1029 MB BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH IS CENTERED AT 33N43W WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 29N80W AND EASTWARD TO 30N10W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE RIDGE TO THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS CAUSING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES SOUTH OF 23N WITH SEAS 6-9 FT.
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ARE OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA,
BETWEEN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, AND ALONG THE COAST OF MAURITANIA
AND WESTERN SAHARA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH
SEAS 4-6 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AWAY FROM
THE TROPICAL WAVES AND ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK PRODUCING MAINLY A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING. PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF HISPANIOLA TO ABOUT 22N EACH LATE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT.
LANDSEA
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