836
AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 23W FROM THE EASTERN
CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN
20W AND 26W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 51W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 06N 09N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 64W FROM NEAR THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTAL BORDER OF
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N26W. AN
ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 07N26W THROUGH 05N35W TO 07N48W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR AND UP TO 160
NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA, PANAMA AND NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL GULF.
OTHERWISE, A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE TO S
WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN GULF. FRESH
TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND
SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BECOME
STRONG AT TIMES. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SURFACE RIDGING NEAR 28N, ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH
CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVERGENT TRADES ARE PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR HISPANIOLA, THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND THE LEE OF CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO E WINDS ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE IMPACTING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE FOUND
NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN AND AT THE MOST SOUTHWESTERN BASIN.
FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE CARRIBENIN SHOP.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, SPREADING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
BASIN. WINDS WILL PULSE BETWEEN FRESH AND STRONG NEAR THE GULF OF
HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF CUBA
WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES, FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AL LEAST EARLY THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1029 MB
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AT 33N42W TO BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THESE
FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE ESE TO ENE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT FOR THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 35W AND
55W. FARTHER WEST, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE TO S WINDS WITH 4 TO
6 FT SEAS PREVAIL NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND THE
BAHAMAS/FLORIDA. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 06N TO 20N WEST OF
35W, MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE TO ESE WINDS AND
SEAS AT 6 TO 10 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS WITH 4 TO 6
FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK PRODUCING A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE WEAKENING. PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED N OF HISPANIOLA TO ABOUT 22N EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT.
CHAN
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