904
AXNT20 KNHC 111010
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 24W FROM THE EASTERN
CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 04N TO 09N
BETWEEN 21W AND 28W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 52W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 66W, MOVING WESTWARD
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER
CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W TO 07N26W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N26W TO 07N49W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDES OF THE BOUNDARIES BETWEEN 30W-50W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
NEAR COSTA RICA, PANAMA AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL GULF.
OTHERWISE, A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE TO S
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN GULF. FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
ITS RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH STRONG SPEEDS AT TIMES. MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL GULF, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SURFACE RIDGING N OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA-AZORES
HIGH, CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVERGENT TRADES ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
THE LEE OF CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO E WINDS ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE IMPACTING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND
NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN AND AT THE MOST SOUTHWESTERN BASIN.
FRESH WITH STRONG E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
WEATHER OVER THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH
THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASIN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS NEAR
THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE
OF CUBA WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES, FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AL LEAST EARLY THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN. REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1027 MB
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AT 32N56W TO BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA. FOR THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 06N TO 20N WEST OF 35W, FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE TO ESE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. ANOTHER AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL E OF 27W FROM 16N TO 28N. GENTLE
TO MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK PRODUCING A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE WEAKENING. PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED N OF HISPANIOLA TO ABOUT 22N EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT.
ERA
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