363
AXNT20 KNHC 111627
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N26W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N26W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS EVIDENT FROM 04N TO 10N AND EAST OF 52W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS IS ALSO AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER MEXICO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS WEST OF 90W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
2-4 FT (1-1.5 M). LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
PREVALENT IN THE REST OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BRIEFLY REACH STRONG SPEEDS AT TIMES. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
GULF, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM NW COLOMBIA TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND IT IS THE SOURCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE SE CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE DUE TO A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST.
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FORCES
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 19N. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-9 (1.5-3
M), WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING NEAR 13N77W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, SPREADING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
BASIN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS NEAR THE GULF OF
HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF CUBA
WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES, FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AL LEAST EARLY THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN. REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA DOMINATES THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 25N AND
WEST OF 55W, ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF 55W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 18N AND WEST OF 40W.
SATELLITE- DERIVED WIND DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS FROM 15N TO 28N AND EAST OF 30W. SEAS IN THE AREA
DESCRIBED ARE 5-8 FT (1.5-2.5 M). ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK PRODUCING A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE WEAKENING. PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED N OF HISPANIOLA TO ABOUT 22N EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT.
DELGADO
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