076
AXNT20 KNHC 120616
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU JUN 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 27W FROM NEAR THE
WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND
10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THIS WAVE.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 56W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD
TO NORTHERN SURINAME, AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN OVER THE
NORTHERN SURINAME.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 71W FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD TO NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF MAURITANIA
NEAR NOUAKCHOTT, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N31W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 06N31W TO NORTH OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
09N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 17W AND 27W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR AND UP TO 80 NM NORTH OF THE
ITCZ.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS CAUSING
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA, PUERTO RICO AND NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE, A MODEST SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER
THE GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT
ARE PRESENT AT THE EASTERN GULF. FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG ENE TO
E WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
REACH STRONG AT TIMES. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A 1027 MB BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVERGENT TRADES ARE PRODUCING
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND NEAR
JAMAICA. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES
SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. FRESH WITH
LOCALLY STRONG ENE AND 6 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT AT THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLIES AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT
ARE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN, AND GULF OF
HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS AND 2 TO 5 FT SEAS
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN THE CARIBBEAN AND IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL BASIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE AND REACH FRESH TO
STRONG NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS EXPECTED MON AND MON
NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN
THE LEE OF CUBA WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY FRESH TRADES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ZONES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS WITH THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1027 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED NM EAST OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N58.5W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS FOR
CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE HIGH AND ITS RELATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N. GENTLE
TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT ARE PRESENT
BETWEEN 35W AND 55W, WHILE MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE
WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT WEST OF 55W. FOR THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 05N TO 20N AND WEST OF 35W, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO
E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE NOTED. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO
SE WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC WEST
OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND RELATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WIND
REGIME THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH MON NIGHT. PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 22N DURING
EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHAN
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