170
AXNT20 KNHC 121649
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU JUN 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W, SOUTH OF 15N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE NORTHERN PORTION IS UNDER A
PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST SUPPRESSING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N AND BETWEEN 52W AND 64W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N38W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N38W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 02N TO 12N AND EAST OF 41W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SE AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE LONE STAR STATE. MARINERS IN THE AREA SHOULD BE AWARE OF GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SUDDENLY HIGHER SEAS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS, ESPECIALLY OFF NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS.
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WEST OF 90W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 3-6 FT (1-2
M). ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BRIEFLY REACH STRONG SPEEDS AT TIMES. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND IT IS THE SOURCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE SE CARIBBEAN,
WHILE GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE.
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FORCES
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 19N. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-9 (1.5-3
M), WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING NEAR 14N75W. BUOY 42058 NEAR
14N75W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 9 FT (3 M). ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF
THE BASIN AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN THE CARIBBEAN AND IN
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH
TO STRONG SPEEDS NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS EXPECTED MON
AND MON NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF CUBA WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY FRESH TRADES WILL REMAIN
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC ZONES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITH THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN EXTENSIVE 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS
SUPPORTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 23N
AND BETWEEN 65W AND 75W, ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 50W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS
ARE 6-9 FT (2-3 M). FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA, NORTH OF 19N.
MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FOUND
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 27N AND EAST OF 35W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH
MON NIGHT. PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 22N DURING EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
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