029
AXNT20 KNHC 122325
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W, SOUTH OF 15N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SEEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE NORTHERN
PORTION, NORTH OF 09N, IS UNDER A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST
SUPPRESSING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W, SOUTH OF 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N AND BETWEEN 56W AND 64W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN, WHILE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS
ABOUT THE AXIS OVER MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03.5N39W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03.5N39W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 01N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM
02N TO 10N AND BETWEEN 15W AND 35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPAWNED BY STRONG CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
TEXAS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON,
AND CURRENTLY REACH FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN TO CORPUS CHRISTI, TEXAS. AFTERNOON BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS THE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS. STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. MARINERS IN THE AREA SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SUDDENLY
HIGHER SEAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PREVAIL ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER OFFSHORE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS
THE REST OF THE GULF THIS EVENING.
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE WESTWARD ALONG 30N AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. THIS IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTS IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WEST
OF 90W. SEAS ARE 3-6 FT ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT TO
7 FT IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS WATERS, AND 3 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE E
HALF.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND A RIDGE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD. WINDS
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH STRONG SPEEDS AT TIMES.
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE IN THE
WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND IS THE
SOURCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 10N. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS ARE SEEN EXTENDING FROM THE WATERS JUST SW OF JAMAICA
ALONG80W E-SE TO NORTH OF THE A-B-C ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENTERING THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN, AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG ABOUT 32N IS FORCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 18N. THIS
WAS CONFIRMED BY MIDDAY SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. SEAS ARE 6
TO 10 FT ACROSS THE CORE OF THE BASIN, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
OCCURRING NEAR 14N75W, WHERE NDBC BUOY 42058 IS CURRENTLY
REPORTING 10 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE N OF THE BASIN AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF
THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON MON, WITH PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN
THE LEE OF CUBA WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY FRESH TRADES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC ZONES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WITH THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN EXTENSIVE 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF
BERMUDA DOMINATES THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP
TROPICS SUPPORTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 23N
AND BETWEEN 65W AND 75W, ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST
OF 40W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6-9 FT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA, NORTH OF
19N. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FOUND
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 27N AND EAST OF 35W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
SAHARAN AIR PREVAIL ACROSS THE TRADE WIND ZONE OF THE ENTIRE BASIN
FROM W AFRICA TO THE CARIBBEAN AND SE BAHAMAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEK, KEEPING FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS. PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 22N DURING
EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRIPLING
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