556
AXNT20 KNHC 130852
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0745 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 32W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED BELOW.
A TROPICAL N ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS AT 61.5W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
A SW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 80W FROM SW OF JAMAICA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15
KT. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTAL BORDER OF
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL AT 17N16W, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD
TO 10N22W TO 05N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FLARING UP NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N TO 10N
AND BETWEEN 17W AND 31W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH COMBINED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR
COSTA RICA, PANAMA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS LEADING TO
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE NW GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
REACHING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR VERACRUZ,
MEXICO IS DOMINATING THE BASIN, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S
WINDS AND SEAS AT 1 TO 2 FT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF,
EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS AND 3 TO 6 FT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COMPLEX OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO THE NW GULF MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS EARLY.
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY
AND MOVES WESTWARD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH STRONG
SPEEDS AT TIMES. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A 1024 MB BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES A TRADE-WIND REGIME OVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 13N WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND FAR NW VENEZUELA.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG ESE WINDS WITH SEAS AT 5
TO 7 FT ARE PRESENT NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
E TO SE WINDS AND SEA AT 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N
OF THE BASIN AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN THE CARIBBEAN AND
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH
TO STRONG SPEEDS NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON MON, WITH PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF CUBA WHERE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOSTLY FRESH TRADES WILL REMAIN OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC ZONES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITH THESE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE BERMUDA AND AZORES HIGHS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC
NORTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 35W WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SSE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 04N
TO 22N WEST OF 35W, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 6
TO 8 FT EXIST. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH FROM OFFSHORE NORTHERN
AFRICA THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELLS ACROSS THESE REMAINDER WATERS.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS FOR
CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEK, KEEPING FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS. PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 22N DURING
EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LEWITSKY
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