620
AXNT20 KNHC 131724
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1710 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN NEWLY ANALYZED EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 24W FROM
16N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION, LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH,
IS FROM 05N TO 12N EAST OF 26W.
ANOTHER EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W, FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THIS TIME.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W, FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 61W AND 70W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W, FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA NORTH TO 17N BETWEEN
74W AND 84W, INCLUDING COASTAL REGIONS OF COLOMBIA, PANAMA, COSTA
RICA, NICARAGUA, AND HONDURAS. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED
BY A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE EXTENSION OF THE EAST
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AT 13N17W, AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N36W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM
04N36W TO THE COAST OF FAR NE BRAZIL NEAR 02N51W. CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.
GULF OF AMERICA...
THE GULF IS MAINLY INFLUENCED BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE SE
WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
ARE EVIDENT IN THE NE GULF WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH STRONG
SPEEDS AT TIMES. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL WAVES AND ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE WIND SPEEDS WERE WELL-SAMPLED
BY THE LATEST SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5-8
FT ACROSS THESE SECTIONS OF THE BASIN IN RESPONSE TO THESE WINDS.
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND 3-5 FT SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N
OF THE BASIN AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN THE CARIBBEAN AND
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH
TO STRONG SPEEDS NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON MON, WITH PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF CUBA WHERE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOSTLY FRESH TRADES WILL REMAIN OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC ZONES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITH THESE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL WAVES AND ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR A QUIESCENT
BASIN, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS IN OPEN
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEK, KEEPING FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS. PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 22N DURING
EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAHONEY
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