044
AXNT20 KNHC 132304
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 25W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W.
ANOTHER EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W, FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THIS TIME.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W, FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W, FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W, WHILE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OF PANAMA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AT 12N16.5W, AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N36W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM
05N36W TO THE COAST OF FAR NE BRAZIL NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 12W AND
21W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MISSOURI SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO, AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS,
AND IS PROVIDING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE AREA BETWEEN
CABO ROJO AND TAMPICO, MEXICO HAVE MOSTLY MOVED INLAND OR WEAKENED
IN THE PAST HOUR. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OFF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TO THE TEXAS
BORDER. THIS HAS INITIATED NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE
REST OF THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, THE GULF IS MAINLY
INFLUENCED BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE SE
LOUISIANA. THIS CONFIGURATION IS PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE SE
TO S WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH SEAS
OF 3 FT OR LESS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SE WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3-5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS DAILY AND MOVES WESTWARD. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL
GULF, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL WAVES AND ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF BERMUDA AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
80W. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 6-10 FT ACROSS THESE PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN IN RESPONSE TO THESE WINDS. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN, MODERATE E
TO SE TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL. ACTIVE CONVECTION
ACCOMPANIES THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W AND ALONG THE NORTH
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N
OF THE BASIN AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN THE CARIBBEAN AND
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH
TO STRONG SPEEDS NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON MON, WITH PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF CUBA WHERE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOSTLY FRESH TRADES WILL REMAIN OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC ZONES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WITH
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL WAVES AND ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG ABOUT
30N AND IS PRODUCING QUIESCENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BASIN, FROM WESTERN AFRICA INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THE COAST OF
FLORIDA. MODERATE OR WEAKER TRADES AND 4-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL NORTH
OF 20N, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT
PREVAIL SOUTH OF 20N. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS CURRENTLY FOLLOW THE
TROPICAL THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG ABOUT 30N INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN
THE DOMINANT FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED FLOW OF SAHARAN AIR WILL
KEEP MARINE CONDITIONS FAIRLY BENIGN. PULSING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 22N DURING
EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRIPLING
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