043
AXNT20 KNHC 150517
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0505 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W, SOUTH OF 15N, MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W, SOUTH OF 15N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS MOVED
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SEE THE EASTERN PACIFIC'S TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N23W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N23W TO 07N31W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA, WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 3-5 FT (1-1.5 M) ARE FOUND IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF
AND OFF NORTHERN YUCATAN. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A
DIURNAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND TREKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
IN THE EASTERN BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND GENERALLY
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-9
FT (2-3 M). MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 20N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. ROUGH SEAS IN E SWELL ARE LIKELY IN THIS REGION.
FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, AND THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. ELSEWHERE, LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN
E SWELL WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THROUGH THE
PASSAGES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO SUN. OTHERWISE, MAINLY
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DOMINATES
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 40W,
INCLUDING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
4-8 FT (1.5-2.5 M). IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG N-NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT (2-3 M) ARE NOTED NORTH OF
15N AND EAST OF 22W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL PULSE SOUTH OF 25N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE S TO SW WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE
OF FLORIDA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. OTHERWISE, MAINLY GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
NORTH OF 25N THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page