127
AXNT20 KNHC 161700
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON JUN 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 02N TO
16N WITH AXIS NEAR 40W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 02N TO
15N WITH AXIS NEAR 50.5W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN
46W AND 49W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 19N WITH AXIS NEAR 81W,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS AHEAD AND ALONG THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDING OVER
NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA OFFSHORE WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N29W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N29W TO 05N36W
AND THEN FROM 04N42W TO 02N48W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
AND 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN
22W AND 37W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
GULF WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 3-5 FT WEST OF 90W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER E TO SE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LIKELY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE VERACRUZ AND OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
DEPICTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEK NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A DIURNAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N37W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN RESULTS IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 8-11 FT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOTED OFF NW
COLOMBIA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
ARE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA WHERE WINDS ARE
GENTLE TO MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS TO 11 FT ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI NIGHT DUE TO A PREVALENT ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PULSE AT NIGHT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH TUE AND THEN STAY STRONG THROUGH THU WHILE
EXPANDING NORTHWARD AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS. ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
32N37W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLIES ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE GREAT
BAHAMA BANK, AND PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OFFSHORES. THE
PASSAGE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES IS SUPPORTING WINDS OF SIMILAR SPEED
BETWEEN 42W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 7-8 FT SEAS. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ARE ONGOING BETWEEN THE NW COAST
OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. OTHERWISE,
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OFFSHORES DUE TO
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF 25N THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE. STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE JUST NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA AT NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS.
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF NE
FLORIDA THROUGH THU ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE WEEK.
KRV
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