355
AXNT20 KNHC 181739
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED JUN 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 03N TO 15N
WITH AXIS NEAR 25W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE CONFINED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N TO 10N
BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 01N TO
14N WITH AXIS NEAR 44W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 35W AND
45W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING S OF 17N INTO
VENEZUELA AND BRAZIL, WITH AXIS NEAR 62W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
55W AND 68W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE W COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N31W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N31W TO 07N42W AND THEN FROM 06N48W TO
07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN
07W AND 21W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO
08N W OF 49W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE ERICK CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW GULF, INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE,
AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. IN THE NE BASIN,
A SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, A
BROAD ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
AMERICA, FORCING MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS AND OFF NORTHERN YUCATAN. SEAS IN THESE WATERS
ARE 3-6 FT (1-2 M). ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
PULSE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A
DIURNAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 8-10 FT (2.5-3.0 M).
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT (2-2.5 M) ARE
ALSO ONGOING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE REST OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 78W ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF
HURRICANE ERICK IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AT
NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES, AND ROUGH SEAS, ARE EXPECTED IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION REGARDING
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE SUBTROPICAL AND
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
TO 6 FT ARE NOTED OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND AT THE ENTRANCE OF
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS TO 5 FT ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 70W.
TRADES OF SIMILAR SPEED ARE FOUND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
SEAS TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 29N
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE JUST
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AT NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK. GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
RAMOS
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