887
AXNT20 KNHC 182209
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS IN THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 29W FROM 03N TO
15N, MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS AN AXIS ALONG 46W FROM
02N TO 14W, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 09N
BETWEEN 37W AND 47W.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W S OF 17N INTO
VENEZUELA, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE W COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES WSW TO 07N26W. THERE ARE THREE
SEGMENTS OF ITCZ, SEPARATED BY ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED
IN THE ABOVE SECTIONS. THESE SEGMENTS ARE NOTED FROM 07N26W TO
08N29W, 08N32W TO 07N42W, AND FROM 06N48W TO 07N58W. ASIDE FROM
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N E OF 21W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM NE OF TAMPICO TO E OF VERACRUZ. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN
PACIFIC HURRICANE ERICK, IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
SW GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN POSITIONED IN
THE NE BASIN HAS DISSIPATED EARLIER THIS EVENING. OVERALL, THE
WINDS IN THE GULF ARE BEING DOMINATED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
CENTERED IN THE SW ATLANTIC, LEADING TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE NE
BASIN, AND MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
BASIN. A SURGE OF E WINDS HAS EMERGED FROM THE NW YUCATAN
PENINSULA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING DIURNAL TROUGH.
SEAS IN NE HALF OF THE BAS ARE LESS THAN 3 FT, WITH 3 TO 6 FT SEAS
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
PULSE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS A DIURNAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 8-11 FT (2.5-3.5 M).
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT (2-2.5 M) ARE
ALSO ONGOING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE EASTERN
AND NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ERICK.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AT
NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES, AND ROUGH SEAS, ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 29N CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 6 FT ARE NOTED OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA
AND AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADES AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT DOMINATE WATERS S OF 25N,
WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS TO THE
N.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ALONG 29N. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA AT NIGHT INTO LATE THIS WEEK. GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
KONARIK
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