751
AXNT20 KNHC 190412
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0412 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS IN THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 29W FROM 04N TO
15N, MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
DEPICTED FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 26W AND 37W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS AN AXIS ALONG 46W
FROM 04N TO 15W, MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 08N
BETWEEN 38W AND 51W.
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND IS NOW ALONG 63W S OF 17N INTO VENEZUELA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN
59W AND 67W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE W COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES WSW TO 07N34W. THERE ARE TWO
SEGMENTS OF ITCZ, SEPARATED BY AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE
DESCRIBED IN THE ABOVE SECTION. THESE SEGMENTS ARE NOTED FROM
07N33W TO 07N43W, THEN FROM 06N48W TO 06N53W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N E
OF 21W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PACIFIC MAJOR
HURRICANE ERICK, IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RECENT WIND
DERIVED SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS REVEALED 40 KT WINDS WITHING THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS, SOUTH OF TAMPA, FL IN ASSOCIATION TO A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OVERALL, THE WINDS IN
THE GULF ARE BEING DOMINATED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED IN
THE SW ATLANTIC, LEADING TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN BASIN. SEAS
IN NE HALF OF THE BASIN ARE LESS THAN 3 FT, WITH 3 TO 6 FT SEAS
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
PULSE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A
DIURNAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN UNDER A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 8-11 FT. FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-9 FT ARE ALSO ONGOING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE EASTERN AND NW CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 77W IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ERICK.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 13 FT
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA
AT NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES, AND ROUGH SEAS, ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 27N CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE NOTED OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA
AND AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADES AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT DOMINATE WATERS S OF 20N,
WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS TO THE
N. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FOUND OFF THE COAST OF DAKAR AND NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ALONG 29N. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA AT NIGHT INTO LATE THIS WEEK. GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
KRV
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